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David Dierking

Sector Buy/Sell Signals - Week of March 16, 2020

Volatility remains at prodigious levels, but the markets are still searching for a firm bottom. While Friday's 9% gain seems promising, large moves like this are part of the typical bear market. In other words, you shouldn't assume that equities have turned the corner. In fact, it's more likely than not that there's further downside ahead.

For evidence, look no further than the futures market's reaction Sunday night to the Fed's emergency rate cut and QE announcement. Dow futures hit limit down (roughly 1,000 points) within minutes, giving the impression that investors clearly view the Fed rate cut and QE as a panic move. My question is why couldn't the Fed wait just three more days for the March FOMC meeting to make this change? Why did it have to happen right now? It feels like the Fed knows that some of the post-coronavirus economic numbers are going to be really bad and is trying to get out in front of it.

Short-term Treasuries still look strong, although longer-term maturities are appearing more mixed. The Fed's emergency cut now has the 10-year Treasury yield moving back from 1% to around 0.7%, so expect the Treasury rally to launch again this week and the signals to flip back to green.

Here is the full scorecard for the week ahead.

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